Cigar Aficionado

AFC EAST

Division Winner // Buffalo Bills

Every year is supposed to be the Bills’ year now, and the club will lose cap flexibility when it re-signs stud quarterback Josh Allen. Road grader O’Cyrus Torrence should help open holes on the line for James Cook (5.7 yards per carry), Damien Harris (a former Patriot) and short-yardage bruiser Latavius Murray. The defense was already tough and gets a healthy Von Miller back (and Leonard Floyd will help him chase quarterbacks) but losing Tremaine Edmunds stings. Head coach Sean McDermott calls defensive signals as coordinator Leslie Frazier sits out a year. (Maybe Frazier had an inkling that Aaron Rodgers would show up with the Jets.) The Bills have won this division three years in a row but have flamed out in the playoffs the last two. The entire sports world is hoping for an inspirational comeback from Damar Hamlin.

2. New England Patriots

It sounds weird to say the Patriots need better coaching but Bill Belichick and owners Robert and Jonathan Kraft can be counted on to right this ship. Incoming offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien must save Mac Jones from last season’s backslide at quarterback. Rhamondre Stevenson is a 1,000-yard rusher, and Ezekiel Elliott (formerly with Dallas) will keep him fresh. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be an upgrade over Jakobi Meyers at receiver. Veteran Riley Reiff upgrades the offensive line and the defense welcomes draft-day steal Christian Gonzalez. Classy move by the Krafts: Tom Brady will be honored at the home opener against the Eagles.

3. New York Jets

Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers assumes the savior mandate for a franchise wallowing in a 12-year playoff drought. He might never want to leave once he Lambeau Leaps his way over to Elio’s, Mark’s Off Madison and Sandro’s. The O line could be a problem, but they have a new running back to open holes for with the August signing of Dalvin Cook from the Vikings.

4. Miami Dolphins

The franchise has been desperate for a Hall of Fame quarterback. Can Tua Tagovailoa, who weighed retirement after multiple concussions, stay healthy? Will the Dolphins ever have a running game? Adding injury to insult, the defense will have to do without new cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who might sit until December.

AFC NORTH

Division Winner // Cincinnati Bengals

Their time is now, while Smokin’ Joe Burrow (4,475 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs) is on his rookie contract, as it will become more difficult to retain and acquire talent when he signs a record-breaking extension. A tight wallet cost the team standout safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, but the money went to new left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. A change of scenery from Minnesota should benefit tight end Irv Smith Jr., but wideouts Ja’Marr Chase (168 catches, 2,501 yards, 22 TDs over the last two seasons) and Tee Higgins (148 catches, 13 TDs over the last two seasons) are the elite targets. Joe Mixon is back following off-the-field concerns with a hefty pay cut. Ickey Woods is getting his famous Shuffle ready.

2. Baltimore Ravens

The most important new guy in Baltimore might be offensive coordinator Todd Monken (two titles at Georgia). Lamar Jackson, finally well-paid and happy behind center, gets needed receiver help from vets Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor, plus rookie Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews. Jackson, who has missed nine games over the last two seasons, needs to cut down the risk-taking so that he can stay on the field. Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards provide bullish power. Can this team bounce back from three consecutive defeats (including the playoffs) that ended 2022? An elite head coach in John Harbaugh makes them dangerous.

3. Cleveland Browns

The Deshaun Watson experiment ($75 million per win at QB) gets a full-season look after his suspension-interrupted season. Marquis Goodwin comes off a so-so season receiving in Seattle. Elijah Moore, acquired from the Jets, has more upside and helps ace receiver Amari Cooper. The Browns went for volume over quality to help on defense. This team still looks half-formed.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett’s rookie QB numbers were mixed. Not good: 7 TDs and 9 INTs. Good: The Steelers were 7-5 in his starts. His best weapons are wideouts Diontae Johnson and George Pickens and power running back Najee Harris. The offensive line gets help from Isaac Seumalo, Nate Herbig and No. 1 pick Broderick Jones. Coach Mike Tomlin (16 years) has never had a losing season.

AFC SOUTH

Division Winner // Jacksonville Jaguars

Last season’s surprise team is this season’s chic pick. Trevor Lawrence (4,113 passing yards, 25 TDs, 8 INTs) led the Jags to their first playoff berth and division title since 2017. Travis Etienne also impressed with 1,125 rushing yards and Christian Kirk hauled in more than 1,000 receiving yards. Bet on Calvin Ridley—back from his one-year gambling suspension—to be a major boost. Evan Engram returns after his first year with the Jags, his best pro season (73 catches, 766 yards and four TDs). The defense began an upswing around midseason but the pass defense is a weak spot. Coach Doug Pederson is the right guy for this group, just as Urban Meyer (about as liked as Nurse Ratched in One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest) was the wrong guy. It helps that the division is not overpowering.

2. Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill chucked only 13 TD passes last season and the Titans lost their last seven games, so the starting quarterback job might soon go to rookie Will Levis. Star running back Derrick Henry rushed for 1,508 yards (second most in the NFL) and the wear and tear keeps piling up for this force of nature. DeAndre Hopkins, formerly with the Cardinals, becomes the top wideout, even though he’s 31 and missed 19 games the past two seasons. He’ll complement 2022 No. 1 pick Treylon Burks. Peter Skoronski slots in at left guard, but the other side of the ball is a mess. The Titans allowed an abominable 29 TD passes.

3. Indianapolis Colts

New coach Shane Steichen gets raw but gifted QB Anthony Richardson, the club’s top pick, to mold over time. Good thing he can run, because the offensive line allowed the second-most sacks last season. Journeyman Gardner Minshew (8-16 as a starter for the Jaguars and Eagles) could start in a pinch.  Sam Ehlinger could also get a look. Jonathan Taylor rushed for only 861 yards last year and needs to stay healthy. It’s a rebuilding year.

4. Houston Texans

Ex-49ers defensive coordinator and former Texan DeMeco Ryans walks through the revolving door of coaches, but thankfully has a six-year contract. Rebuilding this mess may take at least half of that, with the Texans near last in both offense and defense—not the sort of balance anyone wants. The Texans had two of the first three picks in the draft, quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., but for this year, Houston still has a problem.

AFC WEST

Division Winner // Kansas City Chiefs

Having won their second Super Bowl in four years, the Chiefs remain formidable on both sides of the ball as coach Andy Reid cements his future in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The King of the Kingdom remains quarterback Patrick Mahomes (NFL MVP, Super Bowl MVP). He’ll make his receivers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and rookie Rashee Rice) even better. Tight end Travis Kelce remains the key after another huge season (12 TDs). Quick-stepping Isiah Pacheco provides burst from the backfield and the O-line gets new starting tackles. Chris Jones and tackling machine Nick Bolton make the front seven go. The Chiefs remain the team to beat.

2. Denver Broncos

Coaching hire of the decade Sean Payton returns with a focus on saving Russell Wilson’s flagging quarterback career. Wilson’s 16 TD passes were the fewest of his 11-year career and his 84.4 rating was bottom-basement. You gotta score points in this league, and the Broncos managed 16 or fewer in 11  games last year. Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey improve an iffy O-line. Vance Joseph, once Denver’s head coach, returns as defensive coordinator. Look for an attacking, blitzing 3-4 scheme designed to create havoc. The Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since their Super 2015, but if anyone can change things, it’s Payton. Don’t be surprised if he has the Broncos in the Super Bowl within three years.

3. Los Angeles Chargers

Squandering a 27-point lead in a playoff game is not the kind of thing teams quickly forget, so coach Brandon Staley better hope his players have short memories. They have new coordinators on both sides of the ball, an improved run defense and their pass rush gets better simply with a healthy Joey Bosa. Running back Austin Ekeler is the Swiss Army knife who does it all, and QB Justin Herbert is now the highest-paid player in the league with a $262.5 million deal.

4. Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr is gone in Sin City, but is the oft-injured Jimmy Garoppolo the answer at quarterback? The Raiders haven’t won in the postseason for a decade. Owner Mark Davis deserves the same quality that diners enjoy at Spago, especially with the Super Bowl coming to Las Vegas. Welcoming Tom Brady as a minority owner is definitely a Commitment to Excellence. 

NFC EAST

Division Winner // Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott became a quarterback turnover machine after his return from an ankle injury (14 INTs total in those 11 games, NFL-worst 15 overall). The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer but coach Mike McCarthy will call plays. Better decision-making by Prescott is primary. So is better decision-making by McCarthy. Tony Pollard (1,007 yards, 9 TDs) is now the future of the ground game after Jerry Jones and son Stephen Jones were shrewd not signing Ezekiel Elliott (now with the Patriots), who has lost a step. Help will come from free-agent Ronald Jones. A trade for Brandin Cooks beefs up a receiver corps headed by CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. The offensive line is OK, but old in spots, while elite coordinator Dan Quinn orchestrates a defense that recorded 54 sacks before adding stud corner Stephon Gilmore (who will start opposite ballhawk Trevon Diggs) and back up an intimidating pass rush led by Micah Parsons. Super Bowl-starved Jerry Jones believes he can go Dak to the Future with this Texas Coast Offense.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Howie Roseman locked up quarterback Jalen Hurts ($255 million for five years) and then did some superb maneuvering in the draft—maybe he’s the one who is underpaid now! Good move to lock up Hurts (22 TD passes, 6 INTS, 760 rushing yards and 13 TDs) who earned his masters degree in the off-season. Injury-plagued Rashaad Penny, along with D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell, replace Miles Sanders (Carolina). Edge Haason Reddick (16 sacks) and DE Josh Sweat (11) and old reliables Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are back after powering the club to an NFL-high 70 sacks and the Eagles rolled the dice in round one for Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, then landed his college teammate, edge Nolan Smith as well. With the array of former Georgia players there, problem child Carter will have a chance to grow up. The Eagles are sound contenders to reach the Super Bowl again after that heartbreaking 38-35 loss to the Chiefs.

3. New York Giants

A fast start helped the Giants overachieve and make the playoffs in year one for coach of the year Brian Daboll. With more than half of the first 10 games on the road (thank you very little, NFL) don’t expect that again. The club committed to $40 million-man Daniel Jones after his breakout season and added tight end Darren Waller and speedy Parris Campbell and rookie Jalin Hyatt at receiver. Saquon Barkley is an explosive runner but has injury issues, but a new one-year deal worth up to $11 million eliminated the distraction of a training camp holdout. A leaky defense still has some questions. Dexter Lawrence is massive, and can do as much damage at Barney Greengrass as he does to opposing offenses. Classy John Mara and Steve Tisch have the franchise headed in the right direction with Daboll and GM Joe Schoen.

4. Washington Commanders

Dan Snyder’s reign of error came to an end with the sale of the club. He does have six billion reasons to feel good about his toxic stewardship. New ownership has many bridges to build—and a stadium. The front office, coach Ron Rivera, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy inherit an inexperienced QB in second-year Sam Howell and an offense that’s allergic to the end zone.

NFC NORTH

Division Winner // Detroit Lions

Every year, long-suffering Lions fans Sean and Scott say “Detroit has been rebuilding since 1957!” But this is the team no one wanted to play late last season, and they seem to have turned a corner. They poached RB David Montgomery from the Bears and then drafted Alabama’s elusive Jahmyr Gibbs. Longtime receiver Marvin Jones Jr. returns from Jacksonville to replace D.J. Chark. The defense takes its cue from edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (9.5 sacks, 3 INTs and 2 fumble recoveries). The Lions bolstered their weak secondary with C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, and all could start. Dan Campbell gets his guys to play hard. They should be fun to watch.

2. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings went 13-4 and somehow underperformed. Hey, let’s blame Kirk Cousins, the guy who led eight fourth-quarter comebacks at quarterback. This could be a defining year for Cousins as the 12-year veteran’s contract expires at season’s end. Four-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook, 28 in August, deserves respect (1,173 yards, 10 total TDs, 39 receptions) but became a salary cap victim and will make way for Alexander Mattison. Justin Jefferson (324 catches, 4,825 yards, 25 TDs in three seasons) is as good as they make them at receiver. The offensive line is strong at the tackles, less so inside. Salary-cap issues led to defensive upheaval, so that unit will have to gel.

3. Chicago Bears

The Bears moved aggressively to shake off their ugly 2022 season that saw only quarterback Justin Fields as a highlight. He’s dangerous when he takes off (1,143 rushing yards, 8 TDs). Ryan Poles’ draft maneuvers paid off with offensive tackle Darnell Wright, who should start, and two picks in round two to solidify the defensive front. The Bears managed a pitiful 20 sacks last season. Buddy Ryan is rolling over in his grave.

4. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love must fill the oversized shoes of Aaron Rodgers for a team accustomed to top quarterback play. Love, the first Green Bay quarterback since 1991 not named Rodgers or Favre, has thrown only 83 passes. Other familiar faces are also gone and the Pack will count on second-year wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and rookie Jayden Reed as the offense gets considerably younger. The Packers have finished 19th or worse in defense five times in the last decade. Wince, Lombardi.

NFC SOUTH

Division Winner // New Orleans Saints

The Saints plugged the QB hole with Derek Carr, who never won a playoff game in nine years with the Raiders and was no doubt enticed to New Orleans by the Godchaux Salad at Galatoire’s. He’s still a better choice than Andy Dalton (gone) and Jameis Winston (still hanging around). He’ll succeed if wide receiver Michael Thomas bounces back from toe surgery to take heat off emerging deep threat Chris Olave. Alvin Kamara will start the season with a three-game suspension, which means rookie Kendre Miller will be invaluable at running back. The defense was stripped of depth in free agency, but retains Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis (a first-time Pro Bowl pick) and Marcus Maye. Top pick rookie Bryan Bresee adds fresh blood to the line. Coach Dennis Allen is on a short leash in a weak division that should be winnable.

2. Carolina Panthers

Coach Frank Reich (ex-Colts) returns to a team he once quarterbacked and his first No. 1 pick was undersized but accurate quarterback Bryce Young. He’s the only Alabama QB to throw for 3,000 yards twice and he has the well-traveled Andy Dalton as a mentor. Many other offensive players are new as well, such as receiver Adam Thielen and tight end Hayden Hurst, who provide quality targets. Still, the Panthers will miss D.J. Moore, who was traded to Chicago. Vonn Bell upgrades the secondary.

3. Atlanta Falcons

This offense gets a new look with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder under center and top pick Bijan Robinson providing an immediate ground threat. Robinson was considered by many to be the best player in the draft, even as his position has fallen out of favor. He rushed for 1,580 yards at Texas last year, scoring 20 total TDs, and he’s also a solid receiver. The defense gets a remake under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The five-year playoff drought must end, or coach Arthur Smith is in trouble.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A blank slate in the aftermath of Tom Brady’s second retirement. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask don’t inspire confidence. The Bucs won a pitiful division and squeaked into the playoffs. Tough deal for struggling head coach Todd Bowles, who goes into his second season with the pirate ship adrift. He could be walking the plank by December before one last supper at Bern’s. 

NFC WEST

Division Winner // San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy’s heroics as a rookie make him the favorite at quarterback (when his surgically-repaired right elbow permits) over Trey Lance and former Jet Sam Darnold. One of them will be taking over a multifaceted offense that can pound the ball with dual threat running back Christian McCaffrey and work through George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in the air. A powerhouse defense featuring Nick Bosa (43 sacks in four seasons) and Fred Warner only got stronger with the signing of Javon Hargrave, who had 11 sacks with the Eagles. The kicker spot is key, as third-round pick Jake Moody steps in for Robbie Gould, one of the most accurate FG kickers in history. Experienced defensive coordinator Steve Wilks replaces DeMeco Ryans. The 49ers won their last 12 games (two in the playoffs) before losing in the NFC title game to the Eagles when Purdy was lost in the first quarter. “We lost because we played with 10 people,” Deebo said. They’re loaded, but they need to play with 11.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith’s remarkable breakout season (nearly 70 percent completions, 4,282 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs) earned the 32-year-old a nice contract. Kenneth Walker III rushed for 1,050 yards (4.6 yards per carry) as a rookie and will look to be more involved as a receiver. Rookie Zach Charbonnet will grab some playing time as well. Rookie slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba complements D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and can attack the middle of the field. The front office aggressively upgraded a defense that started poorly a year ago and then began to click. Give GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll credit—last year was for building, not tearing down.

3. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams knew that pushing all the chips on the table to win a Super Bowl would eventually be costly. And it has been. The defense is bare except for Aaron Donald, who keyed a superb run defense last year which lost Bobby Wagner to Seattle. The receivers are thin behind Cooper Kupp. If the offensive line holds up, perhaps Cam Akers (786 rushing yards, 7 TDs) can take some of the pressure off Matthew Stafford, who is 35 and missed the final seven games last year with a spinal cord contusion. Coach Sean McVay says he rues his disengagement from the team as 2022 fell apart, so we’ll see what extra energy he may muster with the TV networks already salivating over him.

4. Arizona Cardinals

New coach Jonathan Gannon, a defensive-minded guy, saw many of last year’s starters exit in free agency from a defense ranked 31st in points allowed. Everything hinges on quarterback Kyler Murray, who missed the last four games with a knee injury and was 3-8 as the starter to compound a bad stretch at 2021’s end. He has to be more disciplined and regain his deep touch when and if he returns before midseason. General manager Monti Ossenfort’s wheeling and dealing has put the Cards in great shape to continue building next year. 

SUPER BOWL LVIII PREDICTION

Bengals win over the 49ers 27-20

Joe Burrow gets his second shot at a Lombardi Trophy after falling short in Super Bowl LVI. Nick Bosa is a problem, but his offensive line keeps him upright often enough to fire touchdown passes to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo designs the ideal game plan to contain Christian McCaffrey and make Brock Purdy irrelevant. Joe Brrr is cool as can be, and will be hoisting the trophy while puffing a La Flor Dominicana Andalusian Bull alongside NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.